- as indicated in my previous posts working in the cryptocurrency area can get frustrating sometimes. I've been looking at ways to determine how easy it is to see signs of cryptocurrency market manipulation. This post is obvious a follow of others that I've done on cryptocurrencies:
- I wrote a script to do basic analysis. Download it here:
- details of this script are as follows:
I obviously work in the cryptocurrency space from time to time.
Something which has been frustrating has been cryptocurrency
market manipulation. I am aware of services which handle this but
I wanted something of my own that I understood, could modify, could
run locally, etc...
To run it, download the relevant CSV file from the etherscan.io website.
Then run it as a parameter to this script:
The sample file included in this package was from a long while back
for the BAT token.
It's basically been designed for you to pipe the results to less for
basic manual analysis. I was going to add some form of statistical
distribution analysis, artificial intelligence, etc... capability to
this but it was too cumbersome and didn't really get me enough capability
for the added code so I left it out. If you want it just use something
like ministat.
As this is the very first version of the program it may be VERY buggy.
Please test prior to deployment in a production environment.
Examples:
./etherscan_analysis.sh export-token-0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef.csv
- there are already existing tools for cryptocurrency market analysis online. They can be cumbersome though and don't really integrate well or provide extensibility
etherscan
Token BAT
etherscan csv analyser
- indications of market manipulation are somewhat obvious. The level of obscurity is the key though
- my impression is that even if the market doesn't really grow cryptocurrencies are going to stick around for a while... That means either new analytics firms will pop up or existing finance firms will begin to move into this area (which they already have)
- despite all the hype the same principles of traditional finance apply to this field as well
blockchain analysis
- there are lots of closed source/private solutions for cryptocurrency analysis
- fewer open source options for cryptocurrency analysis though. Most are in Python or C++
blockchain analysis site:github.com
- one thing I've noticed about blockchain and cryptocurrencies is that code is abandoned incredibly quickly based on what I've seen in public source code repositories (much more quickly then when compared with other fields). Most people in this area are really grasping at things. Very few know the area genuinely well
- it's really nice that there are lots of free books and resources out there in this field. Please try to understand how cryotocurrency and blockchain technology works and it's theoretical limitations. It helps you to see through marketing hype that you hear about in many projects. At it's core blockchains are public databases. However, they are very slow. This means that many basic implementations of cryptocurrencies have no genuine chance of replacing fiat currencies or acting as a backup to the current financial and banking system
blockchain books free
- following will not work
for link in $(links -dump 'https://github.com/xieren58/the-best-blockchain-books' | grep 'https://github.com/' | grep -E ".pdf" | sed -r 's/^.*https:/https:/'); do wget -c "$link"; done
- these are some of the techniques and tools that I looked at to analyse cryptocurrency transactions
measure entropy numbers
r get mean from group of numbers
measure variance r from cli
tsv-utils debian
ministat
csv statistics debian package
find statistical links csv linux cli
ftp://atrey.karlin.mff.cuni.cz/pub/local/mj/linux/xsv-1.0.1.tar.gz
measure entropy from group of numbers linux
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/2979174/how-do-i-compute-the-approximate-entropy-of-a-bit-string
alternative xsv
XSV: A fast CSV command-line toolkit written in Rust (github.com)
test randomness of a file linux bash
csv process r linux cli
statistic distribution linux cli
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- as usual thanks to all of the individuals and groups who purchase and use my goods and services
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Random Quotes:
- “At the risk of sounding sentimental, I’ve always felt there are people who can leave an indelible mark on your soul, an imprint that can never be erased.”
― Agent Broyles
- Steer clear of ever ordering a soft drink with ice at McDonald’s and always ask for no salt on your fries.
That’s the hot tip from an inside source at the fast food giant, who has lifted the lid on what everyone should avoid ordering and how to guarantee you can get the best service.
The crew member, who worked at a McDonald’s in Essex in England, told The Sun he gets drinks without ice and says everyone should too.
”I would never get anything with ice in it,” he spilt “It’s not the water that is used to make the ice. It is the machine. It just isn’t cleaned as often as it should be.”
Even though the ice isn’t recommended, the McDonald’s crew member did reveal how to ensure the fries are always fresh and the best time to get them.
“Order your chips without any salt because then we have to make a fresh batch of fries,” he revealed.
“We also have to clean out the tray that the fries are stored in to make sure no salt gets on them.”
Customers should go just after peak times when the menus are changing over because that is when the food will come out the best.
The employee said: “The peak times are eight and 10 (in the morning), 12 and two (in the afternoon), and five and seven (in the evening).”
He added that the worst times to come are during actual peak times because of how busy it gets.
His last helpful tip was to never order a milkshake because the mix to make it is the same as ice cream.
He said: “It’s a white liquid that comes in a sealed bag that we pour into the machine. I just don’t see the point in paying for one or the other when they are literally made from the same thing.”
A McDonald’s spokesman said: “We encourage all of our crew to speak up if they have any concerns, offering formal and informal channels for issues to be raised.”
- Both had some money saved from earlier entrepreneurial endeavors (Reina had a pop-up coffee shop one summer and Harari re-sold concert tickets and sneakers online), so in July 2017, they ordered 1,000 buttons for $2,500 from a Chinese distributor they found on Alibaba. They used LegalZoom to figure out trademark information and set up a website through SquareSpace, an Amazon storefront page and an eBay page for international orders. They advertised the site on Instagram ($75 and $150 per post) and spent $10 per day on Facebook ads.
“Our first day we got zero orders. Our second day, we got one order and celebrated,” Reina writes in a Reddit post. “Each day, sales were slowly dribbling in, and by week two, we were doing five sales a day and felt like Bill f------ Gates.”
Then just before the 2017 holiday season, a video of a Jack Russell Terrier playing with one of their Nut Buttons went viral. According to Reina, it was shared on Barstool’s Instagram account, which has roughly 6 million followers, and soon the co-founders were selling more than 100 buttons a day at $11.99 a pop. Reina, who had final exams, had to recruit his housemates (for $15 an hour) to help package and ship out the buttons to keep up with demand.
The Nut Button now sells for $14.99, and thanks to better prices from their distributor and cheaper fulfillment fees through an the Small and Light Amazon shipping program shipping program, the company’s profit margins are around 60 percent, according to the co-founders. So far, splitting everything 50-50, the partners say they have pocketed around $40,000 each.
- Poe's Law states:[1]
“”Without a clear indication of the author's intent, it is difficult or impossible to tell the difference between an expression of sincere extremism and a parody of extremism.
It is an observation that it's difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish between parodies of fundamentalism or other absurd beliefs and their genuine proponents, since they both seem equally insane. For example, some conservatives consider noted homophobe Fred Phelps to have been so over-the-top that they argue he was a "deep cover liberal" trying to discredit more mainstream homophobes[citation needed]. This conspiracy theory of sorts is either supported or refuted, depending on your point of view, by the fact that he ran for office in five Kansas Democratic primary elections. He never won.[2]
Poe's law applies not only to the absurdity of beliefs, but also to the absurdity of the arguments that are used on behalf of those beliefs. Arguments on behalf of young-Earth creationism and theodicy are especially known for their absurdity. The quintessential Poe's law argument is an argument on behalf of theodicy, which goes: "Who are we/you [mere humans] to question the motives of the almighty?". The absurd simple and obvious non-sequitur and circular logic therein (that God is good because he is the god) gives one the impression that that argument is intended as a humorous parody of Christians, but in fact that argument was made by a few actual insane Christians.
It is important to note that: linking a claim to Poe's Law is not the same as suggesting that said claim is in fact any type of parody at all. On the contrary, linking to Poe's Law just means that you could not tell if said claim was parody, or indeed sincerely held crankiness — assuming the original claimant didn't decide to also supply a clear indication of intent. When one is presented with a claim that is so over-the-top as to either be a brilliant parody or reflect a genuinely outrageous extremist belief, Poe's Law has been invoked.
- "Since China has closed its doors to our waste, the effective cost increases to councils are 400 and 500 per cent — it's just not feasible that councils can sustain those losses.
"It's unfortunate and we would prefer it to be otherwise, but without any sort of subsidy for our recyclable materials, councils just can't make the maths add up."
Ipswich Mayor Andrew Antoniolli said the level of recycling contamination had doubled in the last six months and reducing it to the required level for overseas waste operators was impossible.
"We were very good at our contamination levels a number of years ago — I would contest that Brisbane could get down much lower than 20 per cent of contamination … but all of a sudden I think people were starting to see the stories about the China crisis and they've started to lose faith in recycling," he said.
