000webhost

Web hosting

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

China Vs USA Research Notes, Random Notes, and More

- this is obviously a continuation of my other post:
- note that instability works for China because their currency weakens, containment won't work with China because they're too well integrated into the global supply chain, it makes it harder for the US and it's allies to plan ahead, etc... Also note, the trade war hasn't really made that much of a dent in the deficit? Both the US and China are hurting but the overall direction of things isn't changing that much?
US-China trade war is ‘spiralling out of control’
us china trade deficit trend
Trade in Goods with China
China's robotics industry forges ahead to brighter future
fang stock dow jones
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/stocks-drop-bonds-climb-as-trade-war-ratchets-up-markets-wrap/ar-AAGjJ2i
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/china-hits-back-at-statement-on-hong-kong-in-g7-leaders-declaration/news-story/a5dc7682f0b0134fad216d40388d70f8
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/kevin-rudds-bulls-assessment-of-us-president-donald-trump/news-story/1bc6f427ef9352fd76e6e4fc40d13044
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-china-wont-weaponize-its-currency-as-trade-war-escalates-2019-08-27
https://www.localmemphis.com/business/trump-federal-reserve-is-loving-us-manufacturing-troubles/
https://www.channelnews.com.au/tech-sector-in-trade-war-turmoil/
https://au.news.yahoo.com/china-sincere-trade-deal-says-trump-155206327--spt.html
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/i-don-t-think-they-have-a-choice-trump-says-trade-deal-coming-with-china
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/california-ports-on-the-front-lines-of-the-trade-war-with-china-184453141.html
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/michael-dell-cautions-trade-war-with-china-not-productive-530175
- one of the strange things I've noticed is that Chinese news seems to be generally less antagonistic towards the US then vice versa? Else, I haven't looked at enough news channels/options?
chinese news youtube
China Uncensored
https://www.youtube.com/user/cbcnews/videos
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/don-t-go-confucius-teachers-reject-reasons-to-end-program-20190828-p52ljo.html
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/ndr-2019-china-and-us-have-yet-to-find-magic-pill-for-their-differences-121539774.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/like-the-alliance-francaise-sydney-uni-boss-defends-confucius-institute-20190826-p52kv5.html
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/bold-barely-legal-and-politically-high-risk-boris-johnson-s-brexit-plot-20190828-p52lsm.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-hard-landing-for-china-could-put-550-000-australian-jobs-at-risk-20190828-p52lm9.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hurtful-businessmen-call-beijing-link-claims-absurd-20190828-p52ln6.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/construction-hits-recession-territory-in-threat-to-national-economy-20190828-p52lm1.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-hard-landing-for-china-could-put-550-000-australian-jobs-at-risk-20190828-p52lm9.html
https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-students-reveal-why-they-study-in-australia-20190827-p52l3o.html
- wonder whether it's possible to build a dependency chain/easily find overall exposure levels of some sort between the US and China (I'm guessing via Big Data some commercial firms and intelligence services should have this data)? Is one or the other more replaceable? Is it like modern financial markets, just too complex to map?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-hard-landing-for-china-could-put-550-000-australian-jobs-at-risk-20190828-p52lm9.html
"In the long term, if the China-U.S. trade tensions continue, they will impact the structure of the global industrial chain," Wang added, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese-language comments. "Of course, this will also force domestic companies to change their production methods and promote transformation and upgrading (of their operations)."

Analysts noted that another consequence of the trade tensions may be that Chinese companies gain greater market share, at the expense of U.S. businesses. Already, data and company reports indicate how Chinese companies are shifting agricultural purchases away from the U.S. to other countries, especially those in Latin America.

"For companies with sales exposure," Parker said, "they are absorbing some of the tariff cost or trying to pass it on, but they are losing business to competitors from other countries — something that is already happening. Ability to pass along those costs will depend on margin, availability of alternative sources, and supplier contract terms."
- you'll note that demonstrations only started up as the trade war has increased in intensity? I'm having a hard time believing they aren't somehow linked?
Hong Kong activist who cut his teeth protesting abroad, calls for Western support
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iL89aVlICM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Wong
Events held across Taiwan to show solidarity with Hong Kong
- it's difficult to know when/if the US Empire will end. We know in terms of economics when China will become stronger then the US but I think the main crossover points are when severe problems inside the US begin to show up and when/if China can honestly say that they do a better job of taking care of global issues then the US. At this point, it will be when support for their leadership ends or significantly reduces publicly? Once you understand how many countries resisted US (and China now) influence in the past then you begin to understand why US support may drop off very quickly if they weaken?
"While we reserve the right to respond to these Zionist attacks, we hold the international coalition, particularly the United States, fully responsible for this aggression which we consider a declaration of war on Iraq and its people," the statement by the Fatah Coalition said.
In America today, the number of victims of poverty is legion. Some 40 million to be precise. And victims they are, to be sure. Because let us have none of this silly talk about poverty being self-inflicted. This is just the propaganda endlessly churned out by the superrich and their flunkeys in positions of influence in the media and politics.

Now I’m not here suggesting that we put the superrich in jail (well not for too long anyway. Just long enough for them to get their heads straight and back in touch with their humanity with a spell of hard labor and re-education). What I’m suggesting is that we tax them in a manner befitting civilization, and redistribute their wealth in the interests of the common good.
Economic Update: China's Economic Record and Strategy
Economic Update: Rise and Fall of the USSR
belief in democracy polls
- one of the current ironies (given the state of the trade war between the US and China) is that there are a lot of better options to invest in then the US and it's allies at the moment. In fact, some of the best options are countries that are neutral or non-US allied (such as BRICS countries). However, it obviously means that you're making non-US allied countries stronger and US-allied countries will conversely become weaker relative to the rest of the world
Keiser Report - Paycheck to paycheck (E1428)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObwuO1dCmtM
bond yield by country
japan bond yield trend
share market indices trends by country
precious metal indices
country by interest rate
- one thing that you discover when you examine politics up close is how often jargon is used. I doubt that many people on the ground genuinely understand the difference between democracy and populism. If they did, they'd realise that the political class is just playing with words because the system doesn't really work at the moment for many people right now. Moreover, these elements are contrary to one another. Capitalism limits liberalism and capitalism also stifles democracy because money is used as the primary means of value in society now and valuations often feel far off from being correct?
Blame Liberals For The Rise Of Populism
The Rise of Populism and the Backlash Against the Elites, with Nick Clegg and Jonathan Haidt
liberalism
Liberalism is a political and moral philosophy based on liberty, consent of the governed, and equality before the law. Wikipedia
democracy
What is the basic meaning of democracy?
Definition of democracy. 1a : government by the people especially : rule of the majority. b : a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections.
Democracy | Definition of Democracy by Merriam-Webster
populism
What does it mean to be populist?
Definition of populist. (Entry 1 of 2) 1 : a member of a political party claiming to represent the common people especially, often capitalized : a member of a U.S. political party formed in 1891 primarily to represent agrarian interests and to advocate the free coinage of silver and government control of monopolies.
Populist | Definition of Populist by Merriam-Webster
- it's obvious that both China and the US are really pushing things ethically across the board (even in science). There's no doubt both will do crazy, desperate things to gain/maintain control of the World Order
- one thing which bugs me is why there are a lot of US military bases globally. Some people say that they provide security while others say that they create instability. There is a history of countries violently resisting US influence for many years: Iraq, Afghanistan, Philippines, Cuba, Soviet Union, former Eastern Bloc/Warsaw Pact countries, Pakistan, China, Japan, Syria, etc... The strange thing is that some of these countries feel no safer with or without US influence?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases
Pentagon accused of understating number of overseas bases that may cost up to $50bn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghByFG0_loA
“United States” to Imperial America - Our Hidden Empire
Democracy and Disorder - The Struggle for Influence in the New Geopolitics
F-22 vs Su-30MKI
Density function of the world's income distribution in 1970 by continent, logarithmic scale: The division of the world into "rich" and "poor" is striking, and the world's poverty is concentrated in Asia.
Density function of the world's income distribution in 2015 by continent, logarithmic scale: The division of the world into "rich" and "poor" has vanished, and the world's poverty can be found mainly in Africa.
  Asia and Oceania
  Africa
  America
  Europe
Three-quarters of Germans say that a US troop pullout won’t leave them defenseless, but almost as many believe their own army would be of little effect, a poll found, amid reports that Washington may move its assets to Poland.

74 percent of people surveyed by pollster Emnid for Bild magazine believe they wouldn’t feel less secure if American troops were to withdraw from Germany, as compared to 18 percent who said the US military presence reinforces their feeling of safety.
https://www.rt.com/news/466770-us-withdrawal-germany-poll/
us military base safer
Changing this strategy and these objectives, OBRACC says, is exactly what’s needed. The strategy of maintaining U.S. military dominance with a network of about 800 military bases spread across the globe has left us seriously overstretched. It has diverted our resources from our domestic needs, as well as from constructive, non-military forms of global engagement.

This strategy has created nationalistic resentments, and even spurs to terrorism, in places where U.S. bases sit. Nobody likes to be occupied. The bases near Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia, for example, were a major recruiting tool for al-Qaeda. More recently, the governor of Okinawa came to Washington, D.C., this month to tell U.S. officials about the burdens his constituents feel from this American occupation. They want the United States out, and they have like-minded allies around the world.
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2018/11/something-we-can-agree-close-some-overseas-bases/153108/
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/11/america-still-has-hundreds-military-bases-worldwide-have-they-made-us-any-safer/
"If the US dares to try to invade and occupy Venezuela ... the Venezuelan people will drag the United States into a conflict there that will make the Vietnam war look like a kindergarten party," DeBar warned.

He said the people in Venezuela have been preparing for a US invasion to overturn their revolution ever since the US-backed  coup in April 2002.

"Since then, the Venezuelan government has lasted an additional 17 years. It has delivered several million units of housing to the people and made untold improvements in the lives of people on a daily basis despite the economic warfare the United States has conducted against that country," DeBar said, adding, "The people themselves will conduct warfare on a street by street basis, if that is what is necessary." 

He said the entire Venezuelan society has been mobilized and organized into a prepared military defense force ready for such an eventuality.

'US risks losing Brazil, Argentina and even Mexico' 

Commenting to Press TV on Wednesday, Debar said, “I forgot to make a key point, which is that, given the political landscape across Latin America, if they light a match in Venezuela, they risk losing Brazil, Argentina and most of the rest of the region, including possibly Mexico.”

“It's sort of a domino theory based in actual reality. In Brazil and Argentina in particular the left actually has majority support among the population. A decision to go outside of any pretense of legality places the future of these countries in the hands of the people in the streets. They lose there,” he stated.

“Likewise Mexico. And the loss of Mexico means the loss of US domination of the Western Hemisphere,” he added.
Commenting to Press TV Professor on Saturday Etler said, “Fifty years ago the US was enmeshed in a genocidal war against the people of Indo-China. The nations of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, former French colonies were devastated by a US carpet bombing campaign that slaughtered millions and left their countrysides polluted by life destroying toxins, the worst example of chemical warfare ever waged in human history. All this was done in the name of containing China and the spread of Communism.”

“After a 30 year war against French colonialism and US imperialism, the people of Indo-China achieved their liberation and regained their sovereignty. They have aligned with other nations of Southeast Asia in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), a trading bloc that has brought stability and economic growth to the region, in close association with China,” he stated.  

“The whole pretense for US involvement in Southeast Asia has been proven false. China is not a threat to Southeast Asian nations but a partner in their growth and development and a major focus of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This in no way threatens the US or its Western allies. Whatever issues exist between China and members of ASEAN in the South China Sea can be, and are being, settled by the countries involved with no need for outside intervention by non-regional actors such as the US,” he added.

‘US can't countenance losing its hegemony in SE Asia’

“The US however can't countenance losing its position of military hegemony in Southeast Asia or any other region of the world. It can only maintain its dominance by fishing in troubled waters, hence its desire to use whatever tensions exist in the region to further its own imperial ambitions by applying added pressure on China in its attempt to isolate it and derail its rise as a global power,” the analyst said.

“The countries of ASEAN are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They do not want to alienate either China or the US, which is still a major economic, military and diplomatic influence in the region. But, they should not forget the bitter fruit of previous US involvement in their affairs,” he said.

“The US is not concerned with the welfare of the people or nations of SE Asia. It is, as always, only concerned with its own prerogatives and benefit. The nations of ASEAN know full well that China, not the US, is the partner that will give them peace, security and prosperity. The US only offers war, tension and dependency. The nations of SE Asia should not forget the bitter lessons of history,” he noted.
- these are figures from 2017 but as a rising power it's already as though China has become as important or even more important then the US? Balance of overall global trade moving from US towards China. Timetable is about mid to late 2020s for the switchover to occur
China can’t be stopped, fighting them makes them stronger
China challenges US hegemony in Asia
international trade figures china
Exports
Exports (in US$ Mil)  2,263,371
No. Of products 4,409
No. Of partners 214
Imports
Imports (in US$ Mil)  1,843,793
No. Of products 4,433
No. Of partners 215
international trade figures united states
Exports
Exports (in US$ Mil)  1,545,609
No. Of products 4,523
No. Of partners 224
Imports
Imports (in US$ Mil)  2,407,390
No. Of products 4,528
No. Of partners 222
- it's obvious that the US has been weakening since the end of WWII (with respect to global share of GDP). The obvious question is whether the US Empire blows up violently/suddenly or bows gradually like the UK and USSR did. The obvious difference between the US and other countries is the size and level of control that the military industrial complex has over the population which (means I suspect that it will likely go the way of the UK and gradually bow out)? The Occupy movement and many other groups were successfully neutralised relatively peacefully? That said, if you watch South American or Russian backed media you'll realise they may have simply moved their activities elsewhere?
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-occupy-movement-veterans-for-peace.html
America Is DONE*
Revolt Or Collapse: Pick One* 
- people who are inquisitive or are inside the political system now that liberal, capitalist, democracy has basically failed (this particular version of it anyhow)? The irony is that the public are unhappy but they don't really understand where the problem lies? All they know is that many countries have entered "bizarro world". They have local zero or negative interest rates, life and business is becoming a more difficult, they are unhappy, the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, etc... People who are trying to enact change need to explain things more simply to get their idea across?
Keiser Report - No barrier to negative yields (E1427)
Keiser Report - ‘Human tragedy’ in San Francisco (E1426)
Keiser Report - The Too Big to Fail Investment Universe (E1367)
Keiser Report - Central Banks Are Failing, Will UBI Work (E1365)
Keiser Report - Can US Rates Go Negative (E1424)
The problem is not that there are rich, poor, and everything in between. It's what is done with the power money bestows upon it. The laws and rules be which we live are bought and paid for by those that have the money/power to purchase those laws, which normally means they pay less, it anything (ie Amazon). 
Everyone knows that the politicians have been bought and paid for, a long time ago. 

Short of a revolution, nothing will be done. And even if there was a revolution, those that take over will  be more of the same.  

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Karl Marx (remember that guy?) happens to agree. “History,” the great bearded one once proclaimed, “calls those men the greatest who have ennobled themselves by working for the common good; experience acclaims as happiest the man who has made the greatest number of people happy.”
Jesus also understood this to be the case. That’s why he chased the money changers out of the Temple. And Jesus, like Marx, was a revolutionary. You disagree? In that case, consider his words:
“Blessed are you that hunger now, for you shall be satisfied.
“Blessed are you that weep now, for you shall laugh.
“But woe to you that are rich, for you have received your consolation.
“Woe to you that are full now, for you shall hunger.
“Woe to you that laugh now, for you shall mourn and weep.”
The negative bond yield phenomenon has pretty well destroyed the 'time value of money' as the core of finance theory.
As Hong Kong-based Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets wrote recently: "This has serious consequences."
"[The] destruction of the cost of money not only interferes with credit cycles but also keeps 'zombies' alive … it encourages speculation and discourages productive investment," Mr Shvets said.
"It spurs a race to the bottom with 'beggar thy neighbour' strategies, as nations compete to maximise returns from an ever-declining utility of debt.
"As long as monetary policies dominate, inequalities will continue widening. Eventually most societies will simply blow up," was Mr Shvets' disturbing endgame.
- ironically, (for the cynic) the tendency of the US to destablise countries (whether deliberate or not) gives you ideas of where to and how to invest. It's similar to contrarian investment theory. If you invest where there are distressed assets you can piggyback off of any operation that the US runs?
Global superpowers have always found it painful to acknowledge their relative decline and deal with fast-rising challengers.
Today, the US finds itself in this situation with regard to China. A century and a half ago, imperial Britain faced a similar competitive threat from the US. And in the 17th century, the Dutch Republic was the superpower and England the challenger.
History suggests that the global superpower should aim for a soft landing, including by engaging with its likely successor, so that it still has a comfortable place in the world once its dominance fades.
Sadly, US President Donald Trump is no historian, and his incoherent, confrontational approach to China could seriously damage the US’ long-term interests.
The US' superpower panic bodes ill for its long-term interests
- it's irrelevant how you perceive US leadership. They've been able to maintain relative stability in many parts of the world. Re-balancing of power globally means that we could end up starting where we left off after the World Wars. Examine Asia and you have North Korea/South Korea, South China Seas (which includes China, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Philippines, etc...), Japan/South Korea, China, etc... Heaps of unresolved conflicts globally
- the irony with a lot of conspiracy theorists and alternative news outlets is that they often seem to be at least partly true. It's trying to differentiate what's crazy and what's real that is the problem? 
david icke comedy
david icke popularity
- the US is very vulnerable despite what people may say. Examine what they're trying to do and you'll realise why it's futile and why the end of the US Empire is almost inevitable? The economics of offense is normally better then the economics of defense. It doesn't matter what domain we're talking about. The irony is that since the US Empire encompasses much of the world the economics of defending become much worse (irrelevant whether the US has good intentions or bad)? For that reason, I'd be interested in doing a cost/benefit analysis on both the US and any potential Chinese Empire (I suspect that USSR/Russia did a similar analysis which is why they only want to look after pure Russian core interests this time around?)? The problem is that this discussion would no longer limited to military affairs since many countries work on the basis of hybrid warfare which extends warfare from it's more traditional arena to all elements of human life
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/04/hybrid-warfare-more-psyops-and-more.html
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/08/27/604598/Iran-region-security
- the interesting thing is how various societies have sought to get around the issues that face the current version of capitalism. Universal Basic Income (UBI) obviously takes us back to where the religions once sought to achieve in the distant past. A life beyond basic materialism? One funny thing with many social systems humans have created is a lack of humanity/reasonability? It feels like this continues to this day?
Keiser Report - No barrier to negative yields (E1427)
Keiser Report - ‘Human tragedy’ in San Francisco (E1426)
universal basic income
Tech Giants - Does monopoly have to be a dirty word
The welfare trap or poverty trap is a proposed problem with means-tested welfare. Recipients of means-tested welfare may be implicitly encouraged to remain on welfare due to economic penalties for transitioning off of welfare. These penalties include loss of welfare and possibly higher tax rates. Opponents claim that this creates a harsh marginal tax for those rising out of poverty. A 2013 Cato Institute study claimed that workers could accumulate more wealth from the welfare system than they could from a minimum wage job in at least nine European countries. In three of them, namely Austria, Croatia and Denmark, the marginal tax rate was nearly 100%.[75][76]

Proponents of universal basic income claim that it could eliminate welfare traps by removing conditions to receive such an income, but large-scale experiments have not yet produced clear results.[77]
islamic banking
Islamic banking or Islamic finance (Arabic: مصرفية إسلامية) or sharia-compliant finance[1] is banking or financing activity that complies with sharia (Islamic law) and its practical application through the development of Islamic economics. Some of the modes of Islamic banking/finance include Mudarabah (profit-sharing and loss-bearing), Wadiah (safekeeping), Musharaka (joint venture), Murabahah (cost-plus), and Ijara (leasing).

Sharia prohibits riba, or usury, defined as interest paid on all loans of money (although some Muslims dispute whether there is a consensus that interest is equivalent to riba).[2][3] Investment in businesses that provide goods or services considered contrary to Islamic principles (e.g. pork or alcohol) is also haraam ("sinful and prohibited").

These prohibitions have been applied historically in varying degrees in Muslim countries/communities to prevent un-Islamic practices. In the late 20th century, as part of the revival of Islamic identity,[4][Note 1] a number of Islamic banks formed to apply these principles to private or semi-private commercial institutions within the Muslim community.[6][7] Their number and size has grown, so that by 2009, there were over 300 banks and 250 mutual funds around the world complying with Islamic principles,[8] and around $2 trillion was sharia-compliant by 2014.[9] Sharia-compliant financial institutions represented approximately 1% of total world assets,[10] concentrated in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Iran, and Malaysia.[11] Although Islamic banking still makes up only a fraction of the banking assets of Muslims,[12] since its inception it has been growing faster than banking assets as a whole, and is projected to continue to do so.[9]

The industry has been lauded for returning to the path of "divine guidance" in rejecting the "political and economic dominance" of the West,[4] and noted as the "most visible mark" of Islamic revivalism,[13] its most enthusiastic advocates promise "no inflation, no unemployment, no exploitation and no poverty" once it is fully implemented.[14][15] However, it has also been criticized for failing to develop profit and loss sharing or more ethical modes of investment promised by early promoters,[16] and instead selling banking products[17] that "comply with the formal requirements of Islamic law",[18] but use "ruses and subterfuges to conceal interest",[19] and entail "higher costs, bigger risks"[20] than conventional (ribawi) banks.
- the irony is that if the US does seek alternatives to China it's the same thing? China will be replaced by another country but it's unlikely that the US will be able to achieve substantially better terms of trade? In the meantime, companies will have to research and establish new operations overseas, find and train new staff, figure out a way to guarantee QA/QC, figure out new logistics pipelines, figure out their way around local regulations, etc...
- people are afraid of losing what they have and have a tendency to always want more. That's why we're stuck with saving whatever system currently exists in many situations. Obviously, everyone knows that capitalism has huge problems but it's pretty simple and most people understand it?
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=alien+locker+mib
- it's obvious that a lot of people want a world where good people were rewarded for being just and kind but in reality it's not like that. The core aspects of capitalism means that exploitation makes more sense then ethical practice? 
- a lot of people don't understand the nature of the US Empire. If you examine things overall and look through all of the jargon you'll realise a lot of pain has gone into building it, maintaining it, etc... US has to keep things as is because it has too much to lose if it doesn't. It does this by keeping a strong dollar, and using divide and conquer techniques (and sometimes sheer brute force) overseas. Obviously, this is taxing and that is also the reason why they have many bases overseas. It's from a bygone era. They keep wages low via illegal immigration and H1B visas and costs low via neo-capitalism/neo-liberalism? They use the illusion of US Exceptionalism/dream to keep other people attracted to it in spite of the fact that conditions are often better elsewhere
- you don't really understand the position of the neo-colonialists unless you understand how the US acted during the World Wars. Many commentators say that they were luckier then other countries. That's the main reason how/why they've come to their position now. I suspect this is where other countries don't really understand them. Nobody really talks about it but this is basically what the US fought for and that's the reason why they're unlikely to let go of things without a fight? The whole "national security" argument is gibberish because basically all domains of human life have now been declared domains of combat for a lot of countries? Much of the US economy is about getting bang for buck? They've maximised what they were able to achieve after the World Wars by maintaining the strength of the US dollar and seeking to maximise value from it. This means find a way to find the best/cheapest deals for labour, goods, etc... What they probably didn't count on was the economics of warfare (across all domains). Their position (of superiority relative to the rest of the world) has been eroded relatively quickly despite what may have happened in the past?
“United States” to Imperial America - Our Hidden Empire
Democracy and Disorder - The Struggle for Influence in the New Geopolitics
The scandal-plagued J-1 visa program annually imports 100,000 low-wage and low-tax seasonal workers for use by McDonald’s, Holiday Inn, Food Lion, Disney, and many other seasonal companies.
The huge shot of “Summer Work Travel” labor arrives each year to fill seasonal jobs in holiday resorts, hotels, and harvests, and it allows companies to reduce the recruitment of young Americans for seasonal jobs.

The program is run by State Department officials, and is justified as an international cultural exchange which will benefit America. In practice, there is little cultural exchange because most of the J-1 workers spend their days and nights cleaning hotel rooms, gutting fish in Alaska, or selling items to tourists — while also working to pay off their visa fees. The imported J-1 workers do get a taste of American life for a few months, but for many it is the sour taste of being exploited, overworked, and swindled — or in a few cases, even marketed as prostitutes — by labor brokers and by employers.

In January 2017, agency officials working for former President Barack Obama drafted regulations to protect the J-1 workers.

President Donald Trump’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is finally reviewing those J-1 reforms. The draft regulation “aims to further protect the health, safety, and welfare of exchange visitors on the SWT Program, amends eligibility requirements for participation in the SWT Program, and places additional restrictions and requirements on sponsors implementing the SWT Program,” says the OMB website.

Trump’s deputies have also drafted a second set of reforms, but OMB has not released any information about those changes.

Trump’s deputies are under intense pressure from companies seeking more foreign labor to suppress the wage raises in Trump’s go-go economy said Jessica Vaughan, policy director at the Center for Immigration Studies. Whenever reforms are proposed, she said, “the industries which make money off of this descend like bees on honey, and they all promise to clean up their act — and no-one ever does — [and] token reforms are made and it is back to business as usual.”
- the people who believe in either US or China leadership don't really understand where the problems lie. If Russia and China turn more Westward the exact same thing will happen to their economies as has happened to all other eocnomies in the current US sphere that operate on capitalist, liberalist, democratic principles. It just extends the period over which the US Empire stays alive. The problem with the Chinese version is that it obviously exerts strong control over those who are within it's sphere. The other historical issue is that it. The obvious thing is that currently the US system is making more people unhappy while the Chinese system is making more (mostly Chinese) people happy. Obviously, we should give strong consideration to potential Chinese leadership for this particular reason alone? I expect a combination of Chinese and US shenanigans in future as opposed to a more puritan US shenanigans?
- if you understand how capitalism works then you understand that it creates virtual funnels. The system that existed that existed thousands of years ago continues on to this day. One funny thing is that wealth in hands of a small percentage of humanity makes more sense if you understand how the elite may think? Perhaps they think that IQ tests are valid measures of what constitutes a good human being (lot's of evidence that they are biased towards particular racial profiles and socio-demographic profiles and can be beaten via training/tutoring)? That's why they think they can neatly overlay IQ and income bell curves and that makes sense?
iq bell curve
income bell curve
https://pseudoerasmus.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/world20061.jpg?w=640
- according to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), neo-liberalism, and neo-colonialist theory those at the top of the system are supposed to be able to take care of those down below them. Obviously, it's not worked out that way as life seems to be becoming more difficult for people and the GDP of US is getting smaller relative to the rest of the world as time moves on. Either they need to have more people at the top, the wrong people are currently at the top, the system needs modification, etc? The US Empire is on target to collapse at some point in the future?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/member-elite-bill-dudley-could-open-can-worms-quite-staggering3dd
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/fantasy-central-bank-growth-finally-imploding
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/google-latest-company-shift-smartphone-production-vietnam-china
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-case-for-and-against-chinas-rise.html
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2017/01/saving-capitalist-democracy-2-random.html
- most democracies are "fakey" (I consider them "fakey" because most people aren't getting what they want). I'd be interested in 'direct democracy' experiments? If you didn't already know democracies are ironically (and funnily) aren't as popular as you think and mose of them have huge problems: overlaying capitalism on top of democracy creates a democratic deficit because one vote doesn't really mean one vote and hierarchal structures centralise power, having a security state creates an information deficit and also creates an unlevel playing field because in many countries arrest and subversion of opposition political parties and leaders is quite common, use of lies and mass manipulation means that people aren't really voting in their best interest at all times, etc?
Will of the people: How SUPER are the 'superdelegates'?
belief in democracy polls
- Chinese capitalism is sometimes classified as "authoritarian caplitalism". Data is used to judge the best possible decision at the time and then this decision is backed. Where it differs from the US is that they are very flexible and quick in adaptation. Where the US is more discrete in state/government intervention China is more hands on and open?
Bernie Sanders slammed for doing the unthinkable - praising China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV_IR-EQVCk
- US is a national security state. If you watch many of it's analysts and commentators (such as Jim Rickards) you'll notice that they're trying to push you into gold and cryptocurrencies (of their choosing). Both of which are hedges against an economic downturn. It's obvious that if there is a 'reset' of some sort things will be bad but life will go on. The rest of the world is a little bit different though?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-25/offshore-yuan-crashes-new-record-low-tests-pboc-peg-band
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards
http://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2015/11/china-background-economic-warfare-and.html
http://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/02/a-new-cold-war-economic-crisis-and-more.html
http://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2017/12/algorithmic-trading-with-quantopian.html
http://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/09/diplomacy-russia-vs-usa-and-more.html
http://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2017/01/saving-capitalist-democracy-2-random.html
http://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2018/01/capitalism-analysis-religion-23-and-more.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-positive-trade-war-germany-124853261.html
global reserve currency history
https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/reserve-currency-may-2018
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-reserve-currency-1978926
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_currency
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency
http://www.economicreason.com/usdollarcollapse/world-reserve-currencies-what-happened-during-previous-periods-of-transition/
https://immo.foundation/
https://immo.foundation/static/files/manifest.pdf
https://immo.foundation/static/files/essence.pdf
So far, over 40% of global bonds now yield less than 1% and over $16 trillion worth of bonds have negative interest. Negative interest rates are of course a total absurdity. They totally destroy the incentive to save and they also destroy pensions. In Denmark you can now get a 10 year mortgage with Jyske Bank at MINUS 0.5%. Imagine, you buy a house and the bank charges nothing for the loan but instead lets you pay back less than you borrowed. It will become even more interesting when mortgage rates go to minus 25% so after a few years the debt has been paid by the bank!

95% of global bonds are now below the Federal Funds rate. But since that rate is 2.5%, this is a temporary situation. US rates are likely to decline dramatically during the autumn to zero or negative. That will lead to a lower dollar and higher gold. US stocks will also decline from their current dizzy levels, in spite of lower rates. 
debt levels by country
foreign cash reserves by country
foreign gold reserves by country
- oddly, the one thing the elite don't want is for wealth re-distribution even though it may help fix things at least temporarily? Australia has it via bracket creep, helicopter money, US does it via pledges by billionaires to give away their wealth prior to their passing, etc...
“He’s afraid because we have a real agenda for the American people,” Tlaib then explained, noting that many of the progressive ideas she and her congressional allies are pursuing – such as strengthening civil rights, ending corporate control of government, eliminating student debt, Medicare for All, and taxing the rich – are popular not just with Democrats but also with independent MPs and even some Republican representatives as well.
- if you understand neo-liberalism and neo-colonialism then you'll realise the US and China needs others far more then they need the US and China. You'll also understand that it's about keeping the rich rich and the poor poor across all countries. Free flow of capital and similar rules across the board create this situation. Ironically, this also has a downside. Money flows where ever it is easiest to make a profit. That means offshoring, contract rather then permanent workers, wealthier countries (such as the US) having their industrial bases getting hollowed out. There is no question that this style of capitalism is highly self destructive. You make money however you can make it. I suspect that if the trade war continues the US will get hurt more then China for this particular reason. The US depends on others so much more then others on it? China is flexible, has a ready industrial base, weaker currency, weaker worker rights, etc... It's built for export and it's easier to find new buyers then to find a new logistics and supply chain? The one big problem with China model. It's system is built primarily for export which means it can't really be used elsewhere unless you can beat them at their own game
How Americans Are Losers In The US-China Trade War
- there is no nuclear option to end this? Both have highly built up security services who have probably looked at most eventualities that could come from a trade war between the US and China. It's likely to a war of attrition?
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-geopolitical-logic-of-the-us-china-trade-war/
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3003355/us-and-china-must-not-split-world-two-warns-ex-washington
https://www.scmp.com/topics/us-china-trade-war-opinion
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153587/us-sees-trade-war-tactic-contain-china-so-does
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/u-s-china-trade-war-timeline-what-s-happened-since-may-2019
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/china-willing-to-accept-more-pain-in-trade-war-analyst-says.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/chinas-trade-battle-looks-like-the-long-running-us-japan-trade-war.html
https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/28/eu-warns-serbia-to-cancel-free-trade-pact-with-russia-if-it-wants-to-join-bloc
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/08/28/Americans-approval-of-labor-unions-reaches-16-year-high/4491567011909/
https://www.oregonlive.com/nation/2019/08/donald-trump-would-lose-presidency-if-election-was-held-today-poll-says.html
https://www.rt.com/business/466716-china-nuclear-option-us/
- my gut feeling is that much of the world is lukewarm on US leadership or that they feel that the US has weakened to the point whereby it's just another strong country? If the US sufficiently weakens support will likely drop off very quickly which the US may also feel is the case which is why it is trying to hang on so desperately?
While Venezuela’s experiment in food sovereignty has been met with plenty of skepticism – why would the country with the world’s largest oil reserves suddenly concern itself with agriculture? – one need not look far back in history for an answer. From the manufactured food shortages in Chile under Allende, when the US had vowed to “make the economy scream,” to the still-ongoing embargo against Cuba that precipitated its “special period,” Latin America is no stranger to the weaponization of food as a form of US foreign policy. In Venezuela, which was importing upwards of 80% of its food at the start of the Bolivarian Revolution in 1999, much of it from the US, the stakes were particularly high. Having a secure, sovereign food supply or not could easily become a matter of life and death.
- the biggest irony is that the Economics of Defense is best exemplified by the US and Nordic countries (which have a relatively neutral stance when it comes to foriegn policy and defense). It's generally acknowledged that life in the Nordic countries is better when compared with many others and that after the World Wars the US (and some it's allies) were better off. Most of these countries were less directly involved were/are better off. If the US gets drawn into Iran I'd consider it over for the US Empire. Even if they're debt is looped back internally that kind of financial hit would hollow out the US economy even more. That money has to come from somewhere: they're Empire or social services?
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-case-for-and-against-chinas-rise.html
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/07/are-we-now-ussr-brexit-and-more.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/28/perspectives/us-deficit-debt-economy-interest-rates/index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union
us debt to gdp trend
The United States is, of course, not the only country with sky-high debt levels. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sounded the alarm on global debt, saying debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies are at levels not seen since World War II.

Gibbs said it has been easy for investors to ignore public debt in the short term.

“It’s a problem that people can sort of close their eyes and say ‘that’s not affecting my opportunity set of investments here and now’,” she said.

But the IMF warned that now is the time for investors and policymakers to pay attention to growing debt, singling out the United States. The Fund said the revised tax code and spending agreements will mean the U.S. is the only advanced economy where the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase over the next five years.
It is troubling that after a decade of an economic expansion, the US government is still spending money as it does during and immediately following a recession. Thus, if deficits are this large right now when times are good, how big will they become when the US enters recession territory? Back in 2009, the recession and its aftermath (i.e., massive amounts of stimulus) drove deficits beyond the trillion dollar mark four years in a row. With 2019's deficit total now pushing toward 900 billion, we should perhaps expect deficits to top two trillion when the next recession hits. And probably for several years.

The piper will then need to be paid when interest rates increase and substantial cuts must be made to social security, medicare, and to military budgets in order to service the debt and avoid default.

This reckoning can be put off, however, so long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, and the central bank can continue to monetize the debt. As long as the dollar reigns supreme, the central bank can keep this up without causing high levels of price inflation. But when the day comes that the dollar can no longer count on being stockpiled worldwide, things will look very different.

The central bank won't be able to simply buy up debt at will anymore, interest rates will rise, and Congress will have to make choices about how many government amenities will be cut in order to pay the interest bill. Americans who live off federal programs will feel the pinch. State governments will have to scale back as federal grants dry up. The US will have to scale back its overstretched foreign policy. Not all of this is a problem, of course. But lower-income households and the elderly will suffer the most. Everything may seem fine now, but by running headlong into massive deficits even during a boom, the feds are setting up the economy for failure in the future.

But that's in the future, and few lawmakers in Washington are worried about much of anything beyond the next election cycle.
- the US and China trade war is partly funny because they're so intertwined. A lot of people just don't realise how much trouble a de-tangling could create? A good example of this are US major companies. How many of them depend heavily on China and how many can realistically replace them with someone else? Even US spies depend on China and many US defense projects depend on Chinese components as well? It would be genuine (medium to long term) chaos if they were to be de-coupled? Cost of moving, restarting operations, finding staff, training staff, can't be done over weeks or months, has to be years?
A summit for unity or dispute _ Inside Story
The world’s most influential consumer electronics company shed $44 billion of market value Friday after a pair of pronouncements from Beijing and Washington cast a spotlight on its massive Chinese production base, from which almost all of the world’s iPhones are made.

U.S. President Donald Trump this weekend “ordered” American companies to immediately start looking for alternatives to manufacturing in China, which is something Apple is thoroughly unprepared for, according to analyst Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities Inc.

“In a best case scenario,” says Ives, Apple “would be able to move away 5%-7% of iPhone production out of China” over the course of 18 months. The company would require three years to move 20% out, he adds, which is still less than the 25% of iPhone production that Apple needs for its domestic U.S. market. American tariffs on goods from China would therefore directly impact Apple’s biggest moneymaker.

Ives calls Trump’s latest comments on China “a gut punch to Cupertino” in the title of his report.

Apple’s main assembly partner, Foxconn Technology Group, has claimed that it has the capacity to build all of the Cupertino company’s U.S.-bound iPhones outside of China, however all indications are that to deploy it would require a great deal of time and money. Apple’s stock price took two big hits on Friday in the wake of the latest tariffs announcements.
- it's obvious that the the War on Terror has had limited impact make a difference. So called, "Lone Wolf Attacks" have gone up drastically in the US and UK. This is why the Xinjiang issue is so interesting. The Chinese/Russians sometimes say that things depend on perspective. It's difficult to advocate for what they (the Chinese) are doing but it seems to be more effective?
xinjiang islam
- the US Empire fails to beat the Empire Paradox (namely, the Empire needs to be able to take care of everyone inside of it the larger it grows). If the public understood what was happening I suspect that support for US leadership and the systems currently in place would fall very quickly. Countries are having to take desperate measures to maintain this version of capitalism. ZIRP/NIRP, cash bans, capital controls, etc... are all part of the deal to maintain this deal into the future
Forget Great Depression, the Greatest Ever is Coming Says Gerald Celente
negative interest rates countries
country by interest rate
- the US doesn't always support liberal, democracies in overseas revolutions? If they're genuinely in favour of liberal, capitalist, democracy then it should only have relations with those countries?
military coup
us backed coup
- irony is that a lot of people may say that they want fair and just society, etc... In reality, it's the opposite. We judge society by materialism. We lie for short term gain and do it over and over again in spite of the fact that we know that it often doesn't end well. That said the madness and extreme behaviours of some citizens pushes others to do the same. Wonder whether fairer societies last longer? Making capitalism fairer is semi-easy: businesses can not operate without profits for a set time period, temporary corporations, good regulatory framework which is enforced, unionisation, wealth redistribution via different taxation regime, higher taxation on larger estates/inheritances, etc...
Income Inequality Is a Structural Issue in U.S. - Columbia's Sachs
- ironically, nadir states (such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, special Western zones as we see in the Middle East in countries such as Saudi Arabia, etc...) represent a good comparison and contrast for hearts and minds for particular ideologies since contrarian societies aren't compatible. It's a genuine test of ideas? I suspect that some states will struggle if the US does fall?
- I don't think many people honestly genuinely know or understand what they're fighting for? Examine data across the board and things aren't so green on either side? My guess is that in some states where there is a battle between democracy and something else they're just used to that "something else" whatever that may be (this includes Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan)
Democracy and Disorder - The Struggle for Influence in the New Geopolitics
- most opponents of the US know that taking them on head to head is useless. The advantage that they had after the World Wars was nearly impossible to overcome (if you understand how things turned out you'd understand why they seemed to be well off but became progressively worse off over time. Charity paradox says that you afford to be charitable if you're rich but not poor). Ironically, the US system of sanctioning and generally going hard at rivals has led to self dependence and I suspect a covert and overt network of relationships with similar aims? Namely, to take down US leadership no matter what the cost? This includes terrorists, near peer competitors/rivals, activists, isolated and independent actors, contractors, etc... The obvious thing for the US to do would be to do what they did during the other World Wars. Isolate themselves and then pick up when most major conflicts had been resolved. It's the obvious way to maintain their hegemony especially seeing as though they've hedged against most major catastrophes and threats. This time it's different. I suspect this time others will attempt to bring the fight to the US via covert/hybrid means even on their home territory. Their desire to connect the whole world has created a massive weakness in it as well?
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-exposed-as-us-defence-strategy-in-crisis-new-report-20190815-p52hfk
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/02/a-new-cold-war-economic-crisis-and-more.html
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2016/04/hybrid-warfare-more-psyops-and-more.html
world war united states isolation
https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1601.html
https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-united-states-isolation-intervention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_non-interventionism
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/ominous-warning-dalio-says-current-period-just-1935-1945
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/stocks-bonds-pop
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/social-security-ponzi-scheme-crumbling-massive-cuts-or-tax-hikes-coming
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-28/bmo-we-just-got-another-recessionary-indicator-if-more-were-needed
The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse.[2][full citation needed] The New York Times, on April 6, 1933, p. 16, wrote under the headline "Hoarding of Gold", "The Executive Order issued by the President yesterday amplifies and particularizes his earlier warnings against hoarding. On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he issued Presidential Proclamation 2039 that forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency', under penalty of $10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment."[3]

The main rationale behind the order was actually to remove the constraint on the Federal Reserve which prevented it from increasing the money supply during the depression; the Federal Reserve Act (1913) required 40% gold backing of Federal Reserve Notes issued. By the late 1920s, the Federal Reserve had almost hit the limit of allowable credit (in the form of Federal Reserve demand notes) that could be backed by the gold in its possession (see Great Depression).
- it's nearly impossible to put China or the US into a neat box saying good or bad if you examine their overall histories. They did what they thought was best
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/china-bullying-vietnam-pentagon-says/news-story/63eff6e0dfd3d1c24ad58ed856e0763a
- most of what you see in the news is gibberish or doesn't make sense. If you want to know what the truth is track data that is difficult to fudge. Both sides say that want co-operation but it hasn't been like that for a long time

Random Stuff:
- as usual thanks to all of the individuals and groups who purchase and use my goods and services
- I always wondered how to change the background of certain images. You basically need to take a picture of an object against a background that is unusual (such as a green/blue screen). They you use the Fuzzy Select Tool and fiddle with threshold levels to select the areas that you want to change or crop. Thereafter, you can layer the core image on a new background or else change the background by using a suitable brush or paintfil. This can all be done via the freely available GIMP paint package
fill with background or foreground colour option
change background image gimp
gimp change background
- latest in science and technology
Qatar to build 'reusable' FIFA World Cup stadium
crypto wallet mobile
Report: Iran Manufacturing 97% of Needed Medicine Indigenously
Extinction: Humans played big role in demise of the cave bear
download youtube videos bash
alternative jmeter
https://gatling.io/download/
freenas alternativeto
testing xss linux cli
gig economy computer repair
total downloads google store
linux vst host
password cracker site:github.com
analysis traffic pcap
analysis traffic pcap open source
memcached examples
graph linux cli
- latest in finance and politics
Who is Venezuela opposition leader Juan Guaido? | Al Jazeera English
Exclusive: Philips, under investigation in U.S. and Brazil, fired whistleblower who warned of graft
- latest in defense and intelligence
patriot batteries worthless
- latest in animal news
- latest in music and entertainment
golf brand popularity
1. Callaway
2. TaylorMade
3. Titleist
4. Cleveland
5. Mizuno
6. Wilson
7. Odyssey
8. Ping
9. Cobra
10. PXG
1 TaylorMade
2 Titleist
3 Callaway Golf Company
4 PING Collection
5 Cobra
6 Mizuno Corporation
7 Cleveland Golf
8 Odyssey
9 Srixon
10 Wilson Sporting Goods
11 Bridgestone Golf
12 Nike, Inc.
13 Cleveland/Sxiron
14 AGX Golf
15 Under Armour
16 PGA Tour
17 Adidas
18 Adams Golf
19 Tour Edge
20 Orlimar

Random Quotes:
- For example, GoPro is shifting most of its U.S.-bound production from China to Mexico by mid-2019, while Hasbro is moving much of its sourcing of toys sold stateside from China to Vietnam and India, citing Trump’s tariffs. Levi Strauss, Gap, and shoe company Steve Madden have all announced plans to buy less from China and more from nations such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. 

Here’s the rub: When those companies were producing in China and paying a 25% tariff on goods, they typically added that charge to their prices. The U.S. government collected that levy and could cycle it into the economy by funding anything from aid to farmers (some $12 billion in 2018) to military salaries to highways. But as tariffs get bigger and bigger, the incentive rises for companies to shift from Chinese suppliers to other countries where they might be overpaying by 10%, 15%, or even 20%. “Now, they’re shifting to producers who are costlier and less efficient, hindering the efficiency of the U.S. economy,” says Chad Bown, an economist at the Peterson Institute.

How big is the deadweight burden? The N.Y. Fed study calculated that every U.S. household is paying an extra $620 a year. That number could double if Trump raises tariffs on all Chinese imports to 25%. The cumulative hit to GDP, when you include the drop in exports to China, could be $200 billion, says Weijian Shan, the Ph.D. economist who heads Hong Kong private equity giant PAG, and is the author of Out of the Gobi: My Story of China and America.

That’s a gigantic number. After expanding at 2.9% last year, GDP growth decelerated to 2.1% in the second quarter, and the Congressional Budget Office predicts an expansion of just 1.7% in 2020. At that rate, real GDP would increase less than $400 billion next year, so a $200 billion drag would cut growth in half, to around 1% or less. A drop that size means tepid or zero job creation, flagging investment, and slumping profits—and raises the odds that the economy could tip into recession. 

Meanwhile, China too has paid a price—albeit a smaller one. The IMF predicts GDP expansion of just 6.2% this year, the lowest number since 1990, and 6.0% in 2020. But instead of slapping one-size-fits-all tariffs across vast categories of goods, Xi Jinping is targeting only products the country can’t buy at comparable cost elsewhere. For example, China has imposed a 28% levy on 100% of the $13.9 billion in soybeans it used to buy from the U.S. because it can acquire them at about the same price from Brazil and Argentina. But it can’t find good substitutes for American-made aircraft, drugs, or cars, so China has kept tariffs on those products near pre–trade war levels. Duties on U.S. pharmaceuticals and planes remain below 3%.

At the same time, China has lowered tariffs on every other country. So in most categories, U.S. exporters now face higher tariffs and tougher competition from Canadian, European, and Japanese suppliers. 

Crunch the numbers, and it’s hard to come to any other conclusion: In the trade war that will chart America’s economic future, China is winning.
- The druids are thought to have been a group of people among the ancient Celts who would have been leaders in religion and medicine. Very little is known about them—as Fleming points out: "There are no reliable facts to prove that they even existed or the way that they were portrayed in classical literature."

Ronald Hutton, professor of history at Bristol University, told the BBC there would have been druids in Scotland—the word "druid" means a person who practices religious or magic in the Celtic language they spoke at the time. "The problem is knowing what the word actually means in practice," he is quoted as saying. "Because there are a lot of Celtic languages spoken by a lot of Celtic people from the Iron Age, it can mean all sorts of things from somebody who's a blacksmith who dabbles in magic on the side."

He also told the BBC there are known to have been female druids, but they were unlikely to have been authoritative figures in society: "In Celtic-speaking societies you can have druids with everything from really important decisive figures in society to somebody sitting in a tavern reading palms, they're both druids."
- [Many are thinking] that Mr. Trump is surrounded by lunatics. But I think that another mistake, a miscalculation of the liberals in Iran is thinking they can drive a wedge between Mr. Trump and his closest advisors around him. This is another miscalculation that the liberals in Iran are making. Mr Trump cannot do anything right now. It is my personal belief that the neocon (associates) of Mr. Trump are blackmailing him in every which way. If he doesn’t go with war-expanding policies around the world, they are going to reveal even more information about him. And we all know Mr. Trump has quite a lot of skeletons in his closet, many of them of his own making. So he is stuck in this position.

I don’t think he can act independently in this situation. Well, I think the Iranian liberals that are still in power for the next two years I think are miscalculating once again, thinking they can separate Mr. Trump and they can influence the US to restart a negotiation. I don’t think that’s a possibility, I think it's wishful thinking. And in international relations, there is no room for wishful thinking.
- “The claims made by National Security Advisor John Bolton and by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that there is solid evidence of Iran’s intention to attack US forces in the Persian Gulf region is almost certainly a fabrication, possibly deliberately contrived by Bolton and company in collaboration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” he stated.

“It will be used to justify sending bombers and additional naval air resources to confront any possible moves by Tehran to maintain its oil exports, which were blocked by Washington last week. If the US Navy tries to board ships carrying Iranian oil it will undoubtedly, and justifiably, provoke a violent response from Iran, which is precisely what Bolton, Pompeo and Netanyahu are seeking,” he noted.

“It would be difficult to find in the history books another example of a war fought for no reason whatsoever. As ignorant as President Donald Trump and his triumvirate or psychotics Bolton, Pompeo and Elliott Abrams are, even they surely know that Iran poses no threat to the United States,” he continued.

The analyst wrote that the “influence of Israel over US foreign policy is undeniable, with Washington now declaring that it will ‘review ties’ with other nations that are considered to be unfriendly to” Israel.
- A couple of thoughts.. 1.) It's always better cheaper to be pro-active, not reactive - especially when you already have the lead. If we "wait to see" what Russian/Chinese 6th gens look like then by the time we design, test and build our own we'll be behind the curve. We also build a degree of over-match into our airframes, as the success of the F-14, 15 and 16 have displayed. Each of those handily dispatched not just of aircraft like the Mig-21, 23 and 25, but also aircraft designed to counter them - i.e. the Mig-29. They've all fallen to our 4th gen teen series.

I'm confused as to how you (or anyone?) can say PCA look like F-111 V.2, when nobody here knows what PCA is going to look like? There are artist conceptions, but even at this point I doubt USAF knows. I would bet they're narrowing designs now, but first flight of anything is a good ways off still. Also, PCA isn't being pitched as a be all, do all multirole airframe like the F-35. It's primary mission will be air superiority over GREAT ranges, with perhaps a secondary SEAD mission. 

In any case, I think we're in better and better shape the more F-35's roll off the production line. Although it doesn't have the overwhelming advantage in every area the F-22 does, it restores a margin of superiority we've been accustomed to. In fact, it's considerably greater than that IMO. In prior red flags, it was explained the best blue air could do was have a 3:1 advantage over red air. With the F-35, we're seeing 15:1, 20:1 etc. That's incredible, and an amazing accomplishment IMO. It will only get better with better engines, sensors and weapons.

Russia is developing the Hunter UCAV, and plans to operate it in conjunction with the SU-57. China is undoubtedly not far behind, and may well obtain SU-57's of her own. Either one of them makes a breakthrough and the F-35 could lose its edge, which is why funding/building PCA is so important. It will not be the next F-111, far from it. I expect it to be as dominant as the F-22/35 are today, perhaps even moreso...
- The most famous domestic “stimulus” was the New Deal of President Franklin Roosevelt. University of Pennsylvania’s economist Harold L. Cole and UCLA’s economist Lee Ohanian argue that the New Deal extended the severe economic downturn of the Great Depression by seven years. Indeed, included in the diary of FDR’s Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau was a transcript of his May 9, 1939, meeting with his Treasury undersecretary and two members of the House Ways and Means Committee: “We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. … I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. … I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. … And an enormous debt to boot!”
- Birds can be a hazard for civilian and military aircraft, causing millions in damages every year.

On Tuesday an F-35B with Marine Aircraft Group 12, 1st Marine Aircraft Wing, out of Iwakuni, Japan, was forced to abort a take-off because of a bird strike, according to Major Eric Flanagan, a spokesman for 1st Marine Aircraft Wing.

The aircraft “safely taxied off the runway,” but initial assessments indicated the high-tech stealth fighter suffered more than $2 million in damages, making it a Class A mishap, Flanagan told Marine Corps Times in an emailed statement.
at
Labels: , , ,

Market Consolidation/Neo-Feudalism, Random Stuff, and More

- it never occured to me until recently how consolidated things in the world were in the global market place. In this post we'll take a ...