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Sunday, August 11, 2019

Salaried Pro Golf Tour, Random Stuff, and More

I obviously have an interest in golf:

I've been wondering whether it's possible to realistically start a tour where there's a chance of at least a part salary? I'm mainly looking to target the following (these are obviously just notes. If and as I figure more stuff out I'll post more):
- players who are injured and need some support in coming back
- genuine hard luck stories. Those with talent but no support (financial, emotional support, need to build up a playing record but can't, etc...)
- young up and coming who haven't been picked up by elite sports institutions locally
- guys who need a little bit more time to mature
- who are struggling but at their very best those professional golfers who can put on a show just as good as the guys on the major tours on their day
- those guys who could perform much better if a little bit of pressure was taken off of them (for those who don't know much about golf you don't actually make any money unless you're able to make the "cut" and play on the weekend. Even then you still don't know how much money you're going to be making because of expenses incurred from travel, hotel stays, entry and practice fees, etc...). This structure would give them a "minimum wage". They have to earn the rest via good play
- those who fall between the gaps in current golf setup in general
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2019/04/struggling-professional-golfers.html

Starting capital for the tour/fund is achieved up the via standard capital raising mechanisms:


- lead generators
- sports betting league (legal issues here?)?
- down the line considering selling off shares in the tour (if it's successful)? Perhaps a player sharemarket/ICO style fundraising?
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2019/07/comparing-icos-random-stuff-and-more.html
- minimal entry fees? Paid early so that interest can accrue in cash accounts or else investments?
- betting markets?

I've looked at various scenarios to try and get the thing into a self funding state (money is reinvested whenever their are savings):
- players who graduate from via the fund must pay back into fund the fund if they are successful. They can obviously donate extra money though. Players don't owe anything if they make any winnings
- players are only able to pass through this tour a maximum of 3 times over their entire playing career. This tour is only designed to help players in trouble but have generally have what it takes to succeed over the long term
- funds can be invested. Basic calculations are as follows. If you want about $3K per annum
~100K per person for interest at 3% per annum
~10M for 100 players
~33K per person for interest at 10% per annum
~3.33M for 100 players

The point is for this specific tour is to:
- never become a major big tour
- it's just a backup/support tour which feeds the other major tours? 
- part of it is to reduce the shock for some golfers who are making the jump between amateur and professional golf
Management of the tour could be:
- managed by players for players
- run like the PGA via professional golf administrators
- run on a non-partisan basis with all relevant shareholders gaining a voice
- run by a third party not inolved with golf
- structured like the PGA (as a charity) for taxation reasons? Offshore only possible if enough funds are provided from the outset?

To reduce/cap costs:
- it would be run at relatively deserted courses. There are lots of struggling golf clubs in decent condition who may welcome a tournament that would bring in good players and some funding regularly
- players could share accomodation, travel, and other expenses much like Groupon
- everything would be inverted. A lot of professional tours focus in on being the best that they can be. This will focus in on costs first and foremost instead, good play next, and the overall "show" last
- make rules officials, course marshalls, marketing, etc... entirely voluntary like many current major golf tour events?
- play to be limited to courses that are struggling but are quality and in good condition. Keeps costs of play to a minimum. Plenty of candidates. Locally a lot of courses have $10-20 green fees
- players (and possibly caddies. Caddies may not be used like on mini tours in order to reduce costs) have to record shots to help marketability
- events limited to local areas. Max area would be an entire state to keep costs in check?
- maximum number of players allowed to participate. Maybe around 100?
- minimum wage in US is about $7.25 per hour. We assume each round is 6 hours, 3 day tournament format, 12 tournaments per year, each round is worth $20. That makes for (6*3*7.25*12) + (20*3*12) = $1566 + $720 per person
- existing financial figures for tour pros vary drastically. The main issue is how things are distributed. Those at the top seem to get huge amounts while those at the bottom struggle
salary tour pro
- I asked Andrew Jensen about what what type of thing players would likely go for. He said minimum 100K purse with 700 entry fee. I did check against local tournaments. Steps are about 15K, 10K, 5K with gradual reduction towards cut line
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2019/04/struggling-professional-golfers.html
https://dtbnguyen.blogspot.com/2019/07/comparing-icos-random-stuff-and-more.html
andrewslongdrive(at)gmail(dot)com
golf tournament purse 100000 pga site:au
- not sure how realistic this is. Only way to be certain is to try. Andrew Jensen said that they tried on Florida Elite Tour to run a similar concept and yet there was no interest?
- I'm wondering whether or not this structure could be extended to privatised welfare and social security (things seem to be moving this way anyhow).

Random Stuff:
- as usual thanks to all of the individuals and groups who purchase and use my goods and services
- latest in science and technology
- latest in finance and politics
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https://www.rt.com/op-ed/489948-george-floyd-police-enemies/
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/jun/18/there-are-no-more-excuses-six-industry-insiders-on-australian-tvs-problem-with-race
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/executed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/06/veterans-and-leaders-remember-d-day-fallen-in-normandy-services
https://www.weeklyblitz.net/news/iranian-propaganda-machine-expands-hands-within-muslim-nations-film-industry/
https://www.dw.com/en/british-firms-promise-to-compensate-for-slavery-links/a-53863216
https://www.timesofisrael.com/we-have-to-be-there-us-jews-on-taking-part-in-the-george-floyd-protests/
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/04/22/why-post-coronavirus-america-will-have-massive-poverty/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-08-all-over-again-carl-icahn-warns-investors-be-extremely-careful
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- latest in defense and intelligence
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Random Quotes:
- For me, the gloss has gone from online shopping.

The impression given is that you can place an order and the goods will arrive in a day or two.

If only...

When I order items that the etailer assures me are "in stock", it routinely takes about 10 days for them to be delivered to suburban Melbourne. Even Amazon — not that I've ordered anything from them yet — expects to take three to seven days to deliver, though I'm not that far from their distribution centre.

And then there's a high probability that the delivery driver will fail to ring the doorbell, so I have to wait another day or three for a second attempt at delivery. An acquaintance in the trade tells me this is because subcontract drivers are paid such a small amount per delivery that the only way they can get by is by making sure they are paid twice for a certain proportion of deliveries. If that's true, I sympathise with their situation, but it's still bloody annoying!
Some of my colleagues have seen couriers drive up and drop "sorry we missed you" cards in their mailboxes without going to the door. I can't give first-hand testimony, but I strongly suspect that's happened to me too.

If online stores offered the option of delivery by Australia Post, I could have my purchases sent to the PO Box, but AusPost's parcel limitations mean that's not always possible.

Not that AusPost is perfect – I sometimes (especially at this time of year!) receive unexpected parcels sent to the street address, and the parcel delivery contractor's favourite trick is to leave them by the front door, again without ringing the doorbell. That leaves them wide open to being stolen, either by an opportunistic individual who just happens to see the parcel sitting there, or by criminals who we are told routinely follow delivery vans in order to pick up what's just been dropped off.

Again, I sympathise with drivers who are trying to eke out a living, but how long does it take to ring a doorbell?

So the item is finally in my hands, but in my experience there is a fair chance that the contents will be damaged.

The problem, as I see it, is two-fold. First, many goods leave the factory in packaging that adequately protects the contents while they are in a shipping container during the journey to the etailer's warehouse. Those boxes are nowhere near robust enough to serve as external packaging, and few suppliers seem to repack them into outer boxes that are suitable for individual delivery.

Consequently, I'm often put to the trouble of arranging a replacement and then waiting sometimes weeks for it to be delivered. To their credit, none of the companies I've purchased from have given me a hard time – they have all met my requests for replacements cheerfully, though they naturally want evidence in the form of photos of the product and packaging.

But supporting my argument that goods aren't being adequately packaged, there has been a case where the replacement product arrived damaged!

The second problem is that courier companies don't take much care. "This way up" labels are ignored, and cartons show footprints and other signs of abuse. Having worked as a temporary postie in my youth, this doesn't really surprise me, and it reinforces the argument for better packaging.

Mind you, physical shopping has its drawbacks, especially at this time of year.

Shopping strips and malls are crowded, there seems to be the same limited selection wherever you go, the market has been hollowed out (goods are either cheap and nasty, or ridiculously expensive for what they are – what happened to decent quality at a reasonable price?), and the chance of finding what you want gets slimmer and slimmer (is it true that some stores make more profit from the fees they charge suppliers than the prices paid by customers?).

As I said: Bah, humbug!
- “Four things.” He lists them, in order of importance. First, “general cognitive ability… Not just raw [intelligence] but the ability to absorb information.” Second, “emergent leadership. The idea there being that when you see a problem, you step in and try to address it. Then you step out when you’re no longer needed. That willingness to give up power is really important.” The third thing, Bock says, “is cultural fit – we call it ‘Googleyness’ – but it boils down to intellectual humility.” He says you don’t have to be nice. “Or warm, or fuzzy. You just have to be somebody who, when the facts show you’re wrong, can say that.” And fourth? “Expertise in the job we’re gonna hire you for.”
- As we recently wrote, the US increasingly views China's technology sector as a strategic threat to the country's dominant position globally. US officials have long bemoaned intellectual property theft by China (something Huawei itself has been accused of engaging in).

A key US government agency recently proposed restrictions on exports of emerging technologies that could be critical for the security of America and its allies- similar to the kind of controls it places on exports of weaponry and military equipment.

Whoever dominates those advanced technologies - which include artificial intelligence, robotics, and quantum computing - will likely be in a dominant position economically, politically and militarily.

In Australia, experts are also concerned about cyber-security attacks against our institutions and businesses emanating from China.

For example, consider recent reports in this newspaper that China’s peak security agency directed a surge in cyber attacks on Australian companies over the past year; and that internet traffic heading for Australia was diverted to China for a six-day period.

There's no suggestion Huawei is in anyway involved in these attacks. But the government's decision to ban it from Australia's 5G networks was certainly based on concerns about China.

"A long history of cyber incidents shows cyber actors target Australia and Australians," Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mitch Fifield said in their joint statement back in August without directly mentioning China.

"The government considers that the involvement of vendors who are likely to be subject to extrajudicial directions from a foreign government that conflict with Australian law, may risk failure by the carrier to adequately protect a 5G network from unauthorised access or interference."

In other words, the government was concerned that even if Huawei wasn't directly controlled by the Chinese government (the vendor has always denied that it is), under the country's laws it wouldn't be able to resist any demands made on it by Beijing.

Australia is no longer alone on this front. And whether you agree with it or not, Canberra's decision to push back against Huawei looks less and less contentious.
- A few years ago we conducted a study investigating predictors of undergraduates’ achievement in their first four semesters of university. I was struck by two findings. First, after taking into account numerous background factors, students’ university entrance rank was not a very strong predictor of their university achievement. Second, after first year, there was almost no relationship between their high school achievement and their university achievement.
- Also, as I have described before, the ATAR in some Australian states/territories has a dubious and disproportionate weighting towards one’s English mark. This weighting risks it being a less reliable predictor of post-school success for many students who are entering STEM and similar academic pathways.

Yet in the face of all this, there is enormous pressure on school students to excel in their ATAR, as though the ATAR is the be-all and end-all.

There are two myths that fuel this pressure. The first is the “linear myth”. This holds that life is linear and that we progress as straight as an arrow from birth to the end of our days. Thus, if we fail to achieve a less than optimal ATAR, that sends us on an irreversible problematic trajectory. The reality is that life is non-linear. For all of us it is an upwards, downwards, and winding journey. This is the case whether we achieve a stellar ATAR or not.

The second is the “lockstep myth”. This is the mistaken belief that to have any success later in life, we must get each part of life absolutely right at absolutely the right moment. In the case of the ATAR, we must do as well as we possibly can, otherwise we will miss the boat that sails us to life success. The reality is that life is not lockstep. To have success later in life, it is not essential that we blitz the ATAR now; just as blitzing the ATAR now in no way guarantees life success later.

It is terrific to get a great start to post-school life. Also, to the extent an ATAR provides more post-school options for a student, that is terrific as well.

For those students who get their desired ATAR and gain immediate entry through the front door to the course of their choice, very well done. But for those who are disappointed with their ATAR, do not despair. Your destination has not yet been determined.

For both of you in equal measure, the ATAR has determined your start point. How you respond to that start point will have far greater reach through your life than the ATAR itself.
- THE LIST
1. “Truth isn’t truth.” — Rudy Giuliani, interview on “Meet the Press,” Aug. 19.
2. “I liked beer. I still like beer.” — Brett Kavanaugh, U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee testimony on his Supreme Court nomination, Sept. 27.
3. “While all pharmaceutical treatments have side effects, racism is not a known side effect of any Sanofi medication.” — Sanofi drug company, in a tweet responding to Roseanne Barr’s blaming of their product Ambien in explaining a tweet that led ABC to cancel her show, May 30.
4. “We gather to mourn the passing of American greatness, the real thing, not cheap rhetoric from men who will never come near the sacrifice he gave so willingly, nor the opportunistic appropriation of those that live lives of comfort and privilege while he suffered and served.” — Meghan McCain, eulogy for John McCain, Sept. 1.
5. “We’re children. You guys, like, are the adults. You need to take some action and play a role. Work together, come over your politics and get something done.” — David Hogg, a survivor of the Parkland, Florida, school shooting, in a CNN interview, Feb. 15.
6. ”(I am) not smart, but genius ... and a very stable genius at that!” — President Donald Trump, in a tweet, Jan. 6.
7. “You don’t have to agree with Trump but the mob can’t make me not love him. We are both dragon energy. He is my brother. I love everyone.” — Kanye West, in a tweet, April 25.
8. “Our country is led by those who will lie about anything, backed by those who will believe anything, based on information from media sources that will say anything.” — James Comey, in a tweet, May 23.
9. “I have just signed your death warrant.” — Judge Rosemarie Aquilina, addressing former USA Gymnastics doctor Larry Nassar upon sentencing him to up to 175 years in prison for sexual assault, Jan. 24.
10. “If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd! And you push back on them. And you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.” — Rep. Maxine Waters, in remarks at a rally in Los Angeles, June 23.
- India's government is dealing with an opponent as wily as any political rival — troops of monkeys that have become a big threat around its offices in New Delhi.

Red-faced rhesus macaques have spread havoc, snatching food and mobile telephones, breaking into homes and terrorizing people in and around the Indian capital.

They have colonized areas around parliament and the sites of key ministries, from the prime minister's office to the finance and defence ministries, frightening civil servants and the public.

"Very often they snatch food from people as they are walking, and sometimes they even tear files and documents by climbing in through the windows," said Ragini Sharma, a home ministry employee.

Ahead of Tuesday's start of parliament's winter session, an advisory to members of parliament last month detailed ways they could keep simian attacks at bay. Don't tease or make direct eye contact with a monkey, the advisory said, and definitely don't get between a mother and her infant.

The rapid growth of cities has displaced macaques, geographically the most widely distributed primates in the world after humans, driving them into human habitats to hunt for food.

Many in Hindu-majority India revere and feed the animals they consider to be connected to the demigod Hanuman, who takes the form of a monkey.

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Market Consolidation/Neo-Feudalism, Random Stuff, and More

- it never occured to me until recently how consolidated things in the world were in the global market place. In this post we'll take a ...